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The truth about poker probabilities




the truth about poker probabilities


Any person who has played a little bit of poker will know one important lesson. You can’t do anything about the cards which you are dealt. While everyone knows it, a lot of people don’t act like it. Most players will constantly complain about their bad luck, cry about how bad their cards are, how they’ve missed countless flops and how they are always beaten by a fool calling just for the sake of it.


If you ever want to devote some real time to poker, you have to get over all of these complaints. That is the main focus of poker, no matter what your cards are, you have to play them. That’s why you have to learn how to play any hand in the most effective manner possible. Fold your hand when you know there’s no way out, ignore the fact that your opponent just got the lucky card that he needed on the river.


Another important lesson you should learn from professional poker players is that luck will even out in the long run. No matter how bad of a day you’ve had at the tables, it doesn’t mean that the next day will be the same. Sometimes it might, but overall your luck will go up and down. That is called variance. No one can beat variance and variance is what makes the game of poker so interesting. No matter how skilled you are, a complete newbie who just happens to have a lucky streak will sometimes be able to mop the floor with you. Just remember that streaks like that don’t last forever. And that the opposite is also valid, there are also losing streaks - periods of time when it will seem that luck has lost all interest in visiting your side of the table.


Of course everything is not that simple. It would seem that some people are simply luckier than others. They will also suffer from variance but sometimes they will have some really amazing comebacks in certain hands. When you have a 3% of winning a hand by hitting a single card left in the deck and you do, you just might be that type of person. But that can also be just a matter of perspective. Your opponent will think of himself as the unluckiest person alive since he just lost a sure win.


Another factor which confuses people when discussing poker hands is memory. People will remember a stinging loss more than they will an exciting win. That has to do with our psychological background. Negative memories will stick with you for a longer time and you will always have more vivid memories of something bad that happened to you. So this might also be the reason some people think that they are really unlucky, they only remember the bad beats they had. So just learn to take the good with the bad.


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